The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 122.06 points, or 1.17%, to 10,566.20. The S&P500 finished up 15.73 points, or 1.40%, to 1,138.70. The Nasdaq Composite increased 34.04 points, or 1.48%, to 2,326.35. On the NYSE, advancers outnumbered declining issues by 5.4 to 1 where consolidated volume came to 4.81 billion shares compared with 4.53 billion shares traded Thursday. All sectors moved higher.

Since Friday's close, 4 more bank failures bring the 2010 total to 26. HP revises results 3c lower on litigation contingency. Disney pulls ABC stations from Cablevision. Shell May Offer A$3.3 Billion for Arrow Energy. Google takes aim at Microsoft with acquisition. CBOE, CME strikes deal on volatility indexes. RockTenn announces another price increase with this one on coated recycled paperboard products. IMM-Speculators cut long US dlr bets sharply -CFTC. Obama's Budget Underestimates 10-Year Deficit by $1.2 Trillion, CBO Says. Treasury Reiterates 'Commitment' on Fannie, Freddie. 93% Of Icelanders Reject "Icesave" Bill In Historic Referendum. Elizabeth Warren says nearly 3000 banks of a total of 8000 are about to get "socked in the nose" by their commercial real estate loans. The 10-year yield is up 1 basis point at 3.69%. Gold is -0.10 to $1,135.10/oz. Crude oil is +0.51 to $82.01/brl.

The S&P is back in the range where it previously topped out. Transports closed higher but fails to break out to a new intraday high. FedEx failed to make a new high and didn't touch the upper band for a sixth time in a row. The VIX gapped down to the January lows, so this will be a good test. Bloomberg says the VIX is lowest since May 2008 but the range is similar to January readings. Call buying hit 1.9x puts, so not over the overly excessive 2x but testing the downtrend of highs since summer. So, one month into the 4-month cycle between lows will now show us if this rally is something longer lasting. www.bollingeronbollingerbands.com/chart/main.php

Futures

(6:00 AM) S&P futures (-0.50 vs Fair Value +1.14). Japan moved up 0.7% after trading flat the first hour following the gap up. Singapore edged up 0.5% during the trading session. Hong Kong moved up 0.5% at around a half hour in and traded pretty much flat after with a retest near the close. India's high was at the open which was retested around 1PM before closing off 0.5%. Germany has been flat and London has slipped a bit since the open. The 3-day Arms is overbought similar to the lows since summer but not at the 0.5 extreme. Long minus short-term Arms aren't quite overbought. Short-term advance/declines are overbought but not compared to the moving average.

ECODATA

Volcker Says Too Early to Withdraw U.S. Monetary, Fiscal Stimulus Measures.
Plan for 'European IMF'.

International Review

    * Tokyo Nikkei 225 (+216.96 / +2.09%)
    * Hong Kong Hang Seng (+408.90 / +1.97%)
    * Australia S&P/ASX 200 (+40.70 / +0.85%)

(6:00 AM)

    * UK FTSE 100 (-16.10 / -0.29%)
    * France CAC 40 (-3.18 / -0.08%)
    * Germany DAX (-4.39 / -0.07%)

FOREX

Roubini Says `Super Cautious' China to Limit Yuan Gain to 4% in Token Move.
Volcker Says Euro Will Survive as Greek Budget Crisis Not `Insuperable'.

(6:00 AM) www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/monthly-technical-outlook/2010-03-01.html

    * Dollar / Yen (+0.06 to 90.34)
    * Euro / Dollar (+0.0022 to 1.3647)

Looking Ahead...

Monday, March 8

Earnings: ACMR -0.21 CAS -0.26 AAON 0.33 ATV 0.02 AEPI 2.5 AEZS -0.18 AFCE 0.13 AFFY -1.15 APT 0.12 ALTI -0.05 AOB 0.16 AWR 0.4 AVD 0.14 AXR -0.15 AREX 0.09 RDEA -0.22 AVII -0.05 BMTI -0.42 BNVI -0.05 BKCC 0.11 BONT 4.66 BEXP 0.04 BRNC -0.27 CADX -0.3 CDZI -0.3 CPE 0.03 CMN 0.26 CSU 0.03 CASY 0.36 CECE 0.04 CPK 0.65 JRJC -0.07 CFSG 0.12 CCIX 0.05 CODI 0.31 CMTL 0.47 CNSL 0.22 CORE 0.48 CRED 0.05 CYTR -0.04 DGLY 0.06 DSCO -0.06 DIVX 0.02 DBLE 0.11 DUSA 0 DXPE 0.19 EJ 0.46 EROC 0.18 EBIX 0.27 EDAP -0.01 ESLT 1.28 EM 0.19 NYNY -0.06 HEV -0.11 ENZ -0.08 EVEP 0.64 FGP 1.1 FLOW 0 FCEL -0.18 FSIN 0.26 GFA 0.58 GAIA 0.14 GNCMA 0 GSI 0.14 GNBT -0.03 GMET -0.04 GLP 0.8 GSOL 0.07 GKK -2.78 GPOR 0.18 HALO -0.16 HWK 0.24 HRLY 0.19 HF 0.02 HIBB 0.3 HIL 0.12 HOTT 0.18 IDRA 0 SAAS -0.03 INHX -0.09 ILI -0.08 IHR -0.06 JCG 0.46 JAV -0.09 JAS 1.33 JBT 0.33 KTII 1.46 KERX -0.06 KOG 0.01 KFY 0.11 KTOS 0.03 KRO 0.14 LAWS 0.13 LIME -0.08 LMIA 0.25 LXU 0.1 MAIN 0.21 COOL 0 MAKO -0.27 MNTX 0.1 MRLN 0.09 TAXI 0.17 MED 0.19 MEMS -0.05 MBLX -0.44 MEA 0.05 BKR 0.68 MSEX 0.09 MFN 0.06 MLNK 0.11 MRT 0.24 MNTG -0.16 NABI -0.11 FIZZ 0.11 NLS -0.13 NAV 0.85 NP 0.3 NGAS -0.05 NPSP -0.12 OCN 0.17 OMEX -0.08 OREX -0.29 VITA -0.01 OXM 0.16 PLL 0.47 PKOH -0.02 PDII -0.18 PEGA 0.24 PPHM -0.05 PNY 1.11 PNK -0.11 PCC 0.19 PLPC 0.77 PLFE 0.18 REVU -0.07 PGNX -0.15 PLX 0.12 RWC 0.03 RSCR 0.25 REFR -0.05 RNN -0.03 RODM 0.08 SGA 0.47 SLXP -0.14 SMHG 0.07 SBP 0.22 DDD -0.04 SEAC 0.05 SCR 0.08 TRK 0.13 SSI 0.69 STAN 0.32 SUI 0.75 SNSS -0.13 SURW -0.02 TTWO -0.5 DSGX 0.08 KR 0.33 THO 0.28 TIBB -0.46 TICC 0.12 TACT 0.08 TLP 0.51 TRS 0.1 TRBN -0.19 PRTS 0.04 ULTA 0.3 PANL -0.13 VALU 0.27 VICR 0.03 WSBF -0.01 WH -0.07 XOMA -0.03 YGE 0.14 YORW 0.15 ZIPR -0.08
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM TCB Emp Trends for February.
Economic Indicator: German Ind'l Prod.

Tuesday, March 9

Earnings: AVAV 0.32 BNS 0.82 PSS -0.26 EXLS 0.12 ICFI 0.31 NXG 0.03 ONTY -0.13
Economic Indicator: 7:45AM Weekly retail sales.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM JOLTS Survey for January.
Economic Indicator: European Monster Employment report.
Economic Indicator: Aussie Bank Meeting; Eurozone PPI; Italy CPI; Japan Unemployment.

Wednesday, March 10

Earnings: ABVT 0.87 AEO 0.33 ARNA -0.31 SAM 0.58 CIA 0.04 CWEI 0.16 DHIL 1.11 GYMB 1.10 IPAR 0.19 ODC 0.21 SOL -0.08 RCKB 0.17 RCKB 0.17 SMTC 0.22 SWWC 0.05 STKL 0.03 PLCE 1.03 VIP 0.41 WES 0.29 ZSTN 0.29
Economic Indicator: 7:00AM Weekly Mortgage Applications; 10:30AM Crude Inventories.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM Wholesale Inventories for January.
Economic Indicator: 2:00PM Treasury Budget for February.
Economic Indicator: Ind'l prod for UK, France, Italy.
Commodities: 7:30AM OPEC monthly report; 8:30AM Monthly crop report.

Thursday, March 11

Earnings: ABII -0.94 ARO 1.42 AIRM 0.27 APP 0.04 AWR 0.4 BLDP -0.09 BBEP 0.27 CSCX -0.19 CECE 0.04 CPC 0.14 CSUN 0.08 CCO -0.05 DAC 0.27 DK -0.28 DIET -0.11 HEV -0.11 FSCI -0.03 FRM 0 GST -0.03 GEOY 0.27 GLP 0.8 GG 0.25 HITK 0.5 IMAX 0.08 SAAS -0.03 JTX 0.48 KOG 0.01 LCUT 0.35 TUC -0.02 MDZ -0.01 MEA 0.05 MLR 0.11 NSM 0.18 NAVI -0.08 NPSP -0.12 OMPI 0.17 OPTR -0.34 VITA -0.01 PSUN -0.3 PLL 0.47 PNY 1.11 POWR 0.04 PKT 0.01 QADI 0.14 ZQK -0.13 RAVN 0.31 DINE 0.22 RAD -0.19 SEAC 0.05 SHFL 0.08 SFD 0.18 FACE -0.09 STEI 0.08 SUI 0.75 SNTA -0.25 BKE 0.84 ULTA 0.3 ZUMZ 0.27
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Initial Unemployment Claims; 4:30PM Money Supply.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Trade Balance for January.
Economic Indicator: NZ Bank Meeting; Aussie Unemployment.

Friday, March 12

Earnings: ATV 0.02 ANN -0.02 ASTI -0.23 CTRN 0.75 CYTX -0.16 E 1.27 GNVC -0.03 HALO -0.16 HIBB 0.30 IRET 0.17 KIRK 0.81 MNTG -0.16 NGPC 0.17 OPTT -0.47 PEI 0.94 RAME 0.01 SWHC 0.01
Economic Indicator: 10:30AM Weekly Leading Index.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Retail Sales for February.
Economic Indicator: 9:45AM NFIB Small-Business Optimism for February.
Economic Indicator: 9:55AM Univ of Mich Sent-Prel for March.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM Business Inventories for January.
Economic Indicator: 7:00AM Canada Employment.

All Times Eastern

Economics

(3/5)

OECD Global Leading Index Growth Rate December High was Similar to Previous Extremes.
Employment Shows Little Change Before Upward Revisions.
Leading Inflation Index slipped from a January High.
Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rates Show an October09 High After Improving for One Year.
Credit Growth Increases Assisted by Downward Revisions.

Paging Ken Rogoff: CBO Revises Budget Deficit Higher By $1.2 Trillion, Says In 2020 Debt Will Be Over $20 Trillion, And Debt-To-GDP Ratio Will Be 90%.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paging-ken-rogoff-cbo-revises-budget-deficit-higher-12-trillion-says-2020-debt-will-be-over-

Will The US Devalue The Dollar?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-us-devalue-dollar

Elizabeth Warren Discusses The Global "Enron": From Wall Street To Greece And Back (nearly 3000 banks of a total of 8000 are about to get "socked in the nose" by their commercial real estate loans) Warren says she is afraid, afraid, afraid by this economy as it is not one to believe in. Economic death and rebirth has been based on the middle class and the focus on bailing out Wall Street banks undermines this foundation. She says balance sheets are terrible and that is why she's so afraid.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/elizabeth-warren-discusses-global-enron-wall-street-greece-and-back

Markets (oil price and interest rate growth rates relative to the stock market):

Long term: Neutral 2/8.
Intermediate: Neutral 2/26.
Short-term: Neutral 2/24.

Interest rates and oil can advance with stocks after a correction but outpacing is not really a favorable setup. Long-term growth rates have caught up and this normally happens as we move into a slower growth phase for stocks. When we look at long-term relative price, interest rates don't seem to the be problem they were in 2007-08 or even 2001-02 but that could change in April-May.

Sectors (basic materials and energy growth rates relative to the other sectors):

Long term: Neutral 9/10.
Intermediate: Neutral 11/11.
Short-term: Neutral 1/12.

Commodity sectors' short-term growth rates show basic material relative strength being offset by some weakness among energy shares.

1. MARKET MELT UP?

The bull market turns 1 next week, and despite what the skeptics say, the bull looked rather healthy on Friday.

In fact the S&P is now positive for 2010 and the Nasdaq soared to its highest close in 18 months largely buoyed by a jobs reports that wasn’t nearly as bad as expected.

According to the latest data, employers cut 36,000 jobs last month, better than the 50,000 cuts forecast.

And the unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 percent. Economists were expecting it to rise to 9.8 percent.

The Labor Department's monthly report is widely seen as the most important economic indicator because employment is considered a key ingredient for a strong, sustained recovery.

How should you be positioned now?

It feels to me that we’re entering a market melt-up, says Gary Kaminky. I think right now all money managers’ care about is not under performing the S&P on a relative basis.

I agree with that, says Tim Seymour. I think there’s a lot of money on the sidelines and money managers are under invested. That could drive stocks higher.

I also think M&A speculation is driving the market, muses Pete Najarian. The options action in Nuance, for example, screams that somebody thinks the company is in play.

I wouldn’t chase Nuance, adds Karen Finerman, but the action is bullish because it suggest the environment is growing more hospitable to M&A.

And deals create more deals, adds Gary Kaminksy.

Elsewhere in the market, I consider the action in Allergan and Intuitive Surgical as economic barometers, says Pete Najarian It suggests to me that hospitals are able to spend.

2. BULL IS BACK: APPLE

Bull market leader Apple exploded higher on Friday, leading all tech companies higher.

The move was largely triggered by news that the iPad would go on sale in the US on April 3rd.

The tablet device has a touch screen that is 9.7 inches diagonally and can be used for watching videos, browsing the Web and reading electronic books.

The gadget costs:
16 gigabytes of storage - $499
32 gigabytes - $599
64 gigabytes - $699

What’s the tech trade?

If you’re looking for a derivative trade it’s Akamai, says Pete Najarian. They provide the data delivery for Apple as well as others.

3. DON'T THINK JOBS REPORT SIGNALED 'ALL CLEAR'

Chances are your trader radar is a sea of green with the S&P, gold and oil all trading higher after an okay jobs number triggered an almost audible sign of relief on Wall Street.

But if you think the jobs number signals 'all clear' you'd better think again.

What must you know?

I’m not sure I can buy the commodities rally, reveals Scott Gordon of Forex.com. As market 'tells' I'm watching BHP around $79, he explains If it can’t get above that level it makes me cautious. And I’m also watching Freeport McMoRan. If it can’t break above 82.15 I just can’t get on board.

Looking at the market broadly, 1125 is a key level in the S&P, adds Steve Grasso of Stuart Frankel. If we close above 1125 I’d be bullish, but only short term. Longer term I think there are still plenty of landmines out there. If you’re looking for a trade I’m bullish on refiners, Grasso adds; they look ready to break out and I’d play it long Tesoro.

I like the S&P up to 1150, says Scott Nations of Nationshares. Above that level I get a little dubious. But one way to play this market is with a long position in Walmart. I consider that a relatively safe trade.

I’m keeping an eye of Goldman, says Patty Edwards of Storehouse. It broke above the 200-day moving average, the 100-day moving average and the 50. That suggests to me there’s more upside. I’d add to my position.

4. CHART OF THE DAY VOLATILITY VACUUM

In the chart of the day the Fast Money traders take a close look at the action in the VIX, Wall Street’s favorite measure of fear. It’s fallen almost every day for a month.

What must you know?

The VIX has been down 16 of the last 17 days, says Scott Nations. With so much fear coming out of the market, I think some of the so-called problems are not going to be problems, after all.

5. KASS: 5 STOCKS ABOUT TO HEAD SOUTH

If you’re looking for some short ideas, widely followed strategist Doug Kass has a few names for your radar.

In his column, Kass says he plans to ‘substantially increase his short positions in asset managers, namely Franklin Resources, T. Rowe Price, Alliance Bernstein, Federated Investors and Janus Capital.

6. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR MONDAY

Tim Seymour recommends long the Palladium ETF (PALL)

Gary Kaminksy suggests long TEX.

Karen Finerman prefers long BAC.

Pete Najarian thinks PCX is a buy.Brian Kelly suggests ‘short yen, long dollars.’

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 20.26 points, or 0.20%, to 10,038.38. The S&P500 finished down 2.39 points, or 0.22%, to 1,068.13. The Nasdaq Composite decreased 3.00 points, or 0.14%, to 2,147.87. On the NYSE, advancers slightly outnumbered declining issues but volume favored declining stocks. Consolidated volume came to 4.98 billion shares compared with 6.14 billion shares traded Tuesday. Only financials managed a gain. Oil prices and interest rates gained.

Since yesterday's close, CME Group to buy 90% stake in Dow Jones Indexes. Allstate posts Q4 profit, beats street. Boston Scientific ex-items beat estimates. Activision results top Street, starts dividend. Prudential Financial posts quarterly profit. PartnerRe Q4 profit tops Street; EverestRe trails. Penn Virginia Corp posts wider Q4 loss, shares dip. Arris Q4 beats Street, sees Q1 largely below estimates. SEC probes Airgas trades ahead takeover bid. Winn-Dixie to distribute 6.5 mln reserve shares. MySpace CEO Owen Van Natta resigns. NY Lottery Division gets federal subpoenas. EU finmins agreed IMF role in Greek aid. China CPI was weaker than expected but PPI was strong. AUD roars upward on stronger than expected employment data. Australia's inflation expectations slip but remain above 3%. The 10-year yield is up 1 basis point at 3.70%. Gold is +5.30 to $1,081.60/oz. Crude oil is +0.45 to $74.97/brl.

S&P bollinger band levels are 1158, 1099, 1040. S&P 13-wk ma 1108; 39-wk ma 1025. 40% retracement is 1098; 50% retracement is 1107. The S&P holds the recent downtrend but didn't move below the prior day's low and the transports are similar. FedEx going back to the December high has only had 2-3 days of improvement before stopping, so we've gotten that already. The VIX continues to pause at the increased levels, so gaining potential for something bigger in either direction. Options participants continue to be relatively optimistic which isn't great if you're looking for a contrarian bounce. www.bollingeronbollingerbands.com/chart/main.php

Futures

(6:00 AM) S&P futures (+4.60 vs Fair Value +2.23). The range is +8 to flat. Japan is closed for National Foundation Day bank holiday. Hong Kong's intraday trading was flat in a 0.2% range for most of the day but dropped off after lunch by 0.7% vs the morning high and then ran up 1% the last hour. Singapore's low was 30 minutes in and then nearly made the day's high an hour later with a 0.6% range, retested the low after lunch and then moved back up near the day's high after lunch. India advanced 0.8% the first hour to near the day's high, backed off 0.6% by just after noon, and then traded back around the day's high for the last 2.5 hours. Germany ran up early similar to Singapore and India but by a less amount and then fell in the second hour very quickly by 0.5%, so hopefully meanders back upward after 6:30AM similar to India. London hasn't done much and won't until closer to our opening if similar to Hong Kong. China is off next week for a holiday and this has been much talked about for nearly one month among commodity traders but hasn't been mentioned at all by stock market participants. The 3-day Arms moved back up to slightly oversold and on top of the 10-day. Generally, short-term indicators are neutral. 10-day volume is trying to turn down and most of the rallies have been on declining volume, so it might not be healthy but it's something. Seasonality suggests more optimism is coming but maybe ten days away.

US Treasury Market Review

U.S. Treasuries saw the 10-year yield finished up 5 basis points at 3.69%. The Treasury sold $25 billion in 10-year notes at 3.692% vs. Exp. 3.680% with a bid-to-cover of 2.67 vs. Avg. 2.78 (Prev. 3.00) and indirect bidders taking 33.2% vs. Avg. 43.27% (Prev. 29.0%). Zero Hedge reports the Direct Take Down was a massive 13%, so this is getting more interesting with each auction. The Treasury will sell $16 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday we assume as this is probably one of the few operations that doesn't take snow days in Washington.

Commodities Review

Crude Oil settled +$0.77 at $74.52/brl. EIA still sees higher prices. OPEC Lowers 2010 Demand Expectations After Increasing for Seven Months in a Row. EIA says US weekly oil inventory reports will be delayed from Wednesday to Friday at the earliest due to the weather. Expectations: U.S. crude inventories +1.5mb to 330.5mb in the week ended 2/5. Distillates -1.9mb; Gasoline +0.5mb. Tuesday evening, API reported: Crude inventories shot up 7.2 million barrels to 337.4 million barrels, distillate stocks fell 1.5 million barrels and gasoline stocks rose 1.6 million barrels.

GOLD settled -$0.90 to $1,076.30/oz.

Reuters/Jefferies CRB Futures Price Index +1.11 to 266.23. To view chart: (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CR). We're getting that 4-month cycle commodity rally it appears where commodities run up until they begin to squeeze stocks too much. We've always focused on stocks making lows with this cycle but the nimble can catch various markets going and coming, so it's one of the more exciting trading periods and tends to pay for those dull periods where traders try to make money when they shouldn't. Stocks being so soft recently may cause shorter rallies in commodities but some are already positioning for the early spring rally and planning to hold longer term. A trend change is always a possibility for crops like wheat, so it's an interesting time for all. It's appropriate that we're having a record setting winter at the same time Washington is attempting to put through global warming legislation. God doth have a sense of humor. Rain in the south is normal with El Nino years but it's really becoming a problem for farmers in Tennessee and most likely the other states. The US doesn't have regulations in farming like many countries, so is able to adjust very quickly to changing conditions. More than once conditions haven't been favorable for a crop such as cotton and US farmers kick out a bumper crop of something else like soybeans, so speculators probably should be aware. Farmers in a place like India have to get government approval for such changes and they also often aren't able to adjust equipment for a new crop in time. Regulations are slowly creeping into agriculture here, however.

ECODATA

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (Feb) 3.2%, Jan 3.5%.
Aussie Unemployment - January, Actual: 5.3%, Estimate: 5.6%, Prior: 5.5%.
ECB Mthly.
Germany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 1.3% vs 0.1%, Dec 0.2%.
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jan) -0.1% vs expected -0.4%, Dec -0.2%.
US foreclosures drop in Jan but more loom-RealtyTrac.
China CPI inflation slows but lending brisk.
Bank of Korea keeps rate at record low 2 percent.
Chinese Producer Prices Jumped Sharply in January.
Record Snowfalls in Washington Area Cost U.S. Taxpayers, Local Businesses.
Fed in Talks With Money-Market Funds to Help Drain $1 Trillion in Reserves.
TARP Panel: Small Banks Face Loan Woes.
China's January Loans, Property Prices Surge as Banks Extend More Credit.

International Review

    * Tokyo Nikkei 225 (closed: Japan holidays always celebrate nature and never people.)
    * Hong Kong Hang Seng (+368.47 / +1.85%)
    * Australia S&P/ASX 200 (+40.90 / +0.91%)

(6:00 AM)

    * UK FTSE 100 (+50.80 / +0.99%)
    * France CAC 40 (+25.66 / +0.71%)
    * Germany DAX (+16.09 / +0.29%)

FOREX

AUD roars up on stronger than expected employment data.
USD/JPY advances to 90.00 area.
EUR/USD eases to 1.3750 as EU deals with Greece's issue.
GBP/USD bounces at 1.5570 and advances to 1.5660 (Outlook remains negative, targeting 1.5270 - Commerzbank).
NZD/USD up following jobs rise in Australia. Tests 0.7000.
AUD/USD technicals: still looks bearish to me.
Vietnam devalues its currency by 3.4%.

(6:00 AM)

    * Dollar / Yen (-0.03 to 89.91)
    * Euro / Dollar (+0.0025 to 1.3762)

1. IS BULL MARKET OVER, OR GETTING ITS SECOND WIND?

On Tuesday the Dow posted its largest one-day percentage gain in three months largely due to reports that a bailout was in the works for Greece.

But, just one day earlier it closed 200 points lower on fears weakness in Europe was widespread.

Was Tuesday's market action simply a relief rally or are bulls off and running again?

Strategy Session with the Fast Money traders

There's no doubt that Greece is the word, says Guy Adami. It's certainly influencing trade here in the U.S. Looking at the market broadly I thought the action was okay on Tuesday — clearly a lot of stocks were oversold. But banks didn't trade that well.

According to EU rules the ECB cannot bailout a single member country — however a single nation can, explains Tim Seymour. Personally, I find it hard to believe Germany is going to bailout out Greece — which is the market speculation. But I do think Greece will muddle through somehow, he adds.

However, as an investor I'd make sure to focus on other things, too; there are still broad concerns about the economy, domestically. Don't forget we had strong earnings and stocks didn't rally, Seymour says. Because of that — if you're a short-term trader and want to ride the rally I think there's probably 24 hours left. I expect the S&P will have trouble getting above 1080, Seymour says.

If you're looking for a market 'tell' keep your eye on Goldman, says Pete Najarian. The second anything negative in the market comes up, Goldman tends to be among the first to react. And if you're looking to trade financials, it's important to know the charts of Goldman as well as Morgan appear to be broken.

Although I agree there's been a lack of participation among the financials I'm long JPMorgan, says Joe Terranova. That one stock looks attractive to me. And I'd be careful of trading stocks that are too tethered to the dollar, he adds. The euro is moving the dollar and that could cause havoc.

If you're looking for a trade I'd put Petrobras on the radar, adds Najarian. I'm seeing a large volume of put buying in this name, which I think is protection buying.

2. CALLS OF THE DAY: CATERPILLAR, CITI & MORE

Caterpillar

Shares of Caterpillar spiked higher on Tuesday after Morgan Stanley boosted its rating on the stock to "overweight" from "underweight" as part of a broader upgrade on the U.S. industrial sector.

"Fundamentals have caught up — and now surpass — multiples that have contracted recently to highly attractive levels," Morgan Stanley analyst Scott Davis wrote in a note to clients.

What should you make of it?

The price target is now $70, says Pete Najarian. At these levels I think CAT is interesting.

I think valuations are rich, counters Guy Adami.

Citigroup & Bank of America

On Tuesday Standard & Poor's revised its rating outlooks on BofA and Citi to negative from stable, citing uncertainty whether the government will provide more extraordinary support that benefits debt holders.

The negative outlook signals the possibility of a future downgrade.

What should you make of it?

It introduces uncertainty, says Joe Terranova. Financials aren't performing terribly well right now. The developments make me more interested in only putting money to work in best of breed stocks, such as JPMorgan.

4. CHART LEGEND SEES MORE PAIN

You may need to hideout for a while if a report making the rounds on trading floors turns out to be true.

Dow theory newsletter writer and chart legend Richard Russell says current gains are nothing more than a bounce in a great bear market.

And he's calling for the Dow to fall back another 3,000 points.

"I see the Dow as the heavy side of the see-saw, and the heavy side of the see-saw having tested the horizontal (Dow 10,725) and having failed to climb above it, is now heading down to the level from which the whole bear market rally began," writes Russell.

Before you say, "that's crazy" — it's worth noting that Russell has been writing his newsletter since the late 1950's. And he's been right a number of times.

Although Tim Seymour, Pete Najarian and Joe Terranova just can't get on board, Guy Adami thinks Russell could be onto something.

I don't think it's going that low, Adami says, but there are a lot of market pros who agree with Russell — at least in part — that the Dow is about to make a plunge.

In other words, Russell's prediction might not be as ‘out there' as it sounds.

5. AFTER HOURS ACTION: DISNEY

In extended trade shares of Disney climbed modestly, after both sales and profits beat forecasts.

The media and entertainment conglomerate reported that it earned 47 cents a share in its fiscal first quarter, excluding one-time items, compared with 41 cents a share a year earlier.

Revenue jumped to $9.74 billion, up from $9.6 billion a year before.

A group of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings on average of 38 cents a share on $9.646 billion in revenue for Disney.

What's the trade?

I'd increase my position in this stock over time, says Pete Najarian. I expect to see growth over the next quarter but Disney is a long-term investment.

I agree that Disney is a name that you'd want to be in, says Guy Adami.

Disney is a quality name that performs over time, adds Joe Terranova.

6. TOPING THE TAPE: TOYOTA

Shares of Toyota bounced on Tuesday, despite word that the automaker had issued yet another recall.

The latest involved a potential steering wheel defect in the Camry.

In a document sent to U.S. dealers on Tuesday and obtained by Reuters, Toyota said the 2010 Camrys equipped with a 4-cylinder engine might have a shorter-than-required power steering pressure hose in the engine compartment.

That follows a recall of the Toyota Prius for potentially defective brakes and a broad recall of approximately 8 Toyota models due to defective accelerator pedals.

Considering shares are down 13% over the past 30 days is all the bad news baked in? Or does the stock have farther to fall?

I like Toyota here, says Tim Seymour. It's still the the best run car company in the world. I think the pullback is an opportunity.

After 3 recalls, there's now zero shot of me buying a Toyota, counters Guy Adami. If you want a trade look at Ford.

If you want to play autos, do it with Johnson Controls, counters Joe Terranova.

7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR WEDNESDAY

Tim Seymour suggests long BHP.

Guy Adami recommends long ERTS due to the "big volume in this name."

Joe Terranova prefers long KSS.

Pete Najarian thinks PEP is a buy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 150.25 points, or 1.52%, to 10,058.64. The S&P500 finished up 13.78 points, or 1.30%, to 1,070.52. The Nasdaq Composite increased 24.82 points, or 1.17%, to 2,150.87. On the NYSE, advancers outnumbered declining issues by 3.6 to 1 where consolidated volume came to 6.14 billion shares compared with 4.91 billion shares traded Monday. All sectors increased. The market rebounded after being at an oversold Arms extreme for the prior three days.

Since yesterday's close, Micron to buy Numonyx in $1.3 billion stock deal. Disney quarterly earnings beat expectations. Baidu beats Wall St estimates, sees higher revenue. Lions Gate Q3 loss larger than expected. Stifel Financial Q4 profit trumps Street. Bob Evans Q3 lags Wall Street; shares fall. NetGear Q4 beats view, sees Q1 rev above estimates. Corrections Corp Q4 profit beats Street, sees weak Q1. Wal-Mart toughens delivery deadlines for suppliers. NYSE short interest rises in late January. Short interest positions rise on Nasdaq. Honda issues global airbag recall. Yale Beats Harvard Selling Bonds in Rush for Scarce Connecticut Muni Debt. US banks have $176 bln exposure to Greece, others. Germany is considering stepping in to help Greece above loan guarrantees in an effort to boost confidence that the eurozone will stick together. The 10-year yield is down 1 basis point at 3.63%. Gold is -1.40 to $1,075.80/oz. Crude oil is -0.03 to $73.72/brl. API report a huge inventory build relative to expectations but government data has been delayed until Friday.

S&P bollinger band levels are 1162, 1103, 1043. S&P 13-wk ma 1108; 39-wk ma 1025. 40% retracement is 1098; 50% retracement is 1107. The S&P backed off after nearing 1080 on Tuesday which is the recent downtrend line and the transports keep their downtrend line but bounced from a similar area in early October. FedEx could move up to the mid-band and still have the downtrend hold. The VIX made a lower low but finished similar to Monday. Today is kind of an interesting day in that the 2004 market peaked on this day at 1158 and then eased off the next six months to 1064 by 8/6. That market also had picked up from early March of the previous year. That was the normal price action of a long-term bull market, so this market has already differentiated from that. Q1 is also the time when the Nasdaq continuing to follow Japan of the 1990s would peak. It's also where the Nasdaq following the 1930s would peak. Obviously, six months of slightly weaker prices is hoped for and the latter two suggesting a 2-3 year bear market is to be guarded against. The reason 2004 didn't increase further at this point is probably the same reason we're having trouble as oil prices and interest rates had become stronger and were challenging stocks. If the government were to shut down and stop producing all the economic data, we could just use the various financial markets and wouldn't even miss them. Murray Rothbard used to say the only reason all the data is produced is so they can try to manipulate. He always said good businessmen don't need government data to know what's going on. When you look at advancing stocks and declining stocks short-term growth rates relative to the previous two months, decliners are similar to previous extremes that we've reached the last couple of years but advancing stocks have only declined similar to the lows of July and October, so we're holding up at a pretty good rate low of advancing stocks unless they slip further. Maybe fears of immediate conflagration are overblown?

Futures

(6:00 AM) S&P futures (+2.75 vs Fair Value +1.42). The range is +5 to -4 with most of the upside coming after Germany said they are considering helping Greece above loan guarrantees, so sounds like a direct cash infusion. Asian intraday trading saw Japan improve 0.5% the first 1.5 hours and then decline 0.9% to close at the low. Hong Kong opened near the day's high, fell 1.2% to the day's low all within the first hour and then gain it all back mostly in the afternoon. Singapore fell 0.6 % in the second hour but gained it back halfway through the afternoon before giving most of the improvement back by the close. India slipped 1% in less than an hour and gain it all back by mid-afternoon but fell 1.3% into the close. Germany and London's low was an hour in and then jumped nearly 1.2%, so more than gained back and we'll see how they hold up after lunch. The 3-day Arms drops back to just above 1 as it often does after correcting such and oversold reading. The 10-day Arms remains neutral as is long minus short Arms readings. Short-term advance/declines are neutral.

US Treasury Market Review

U.S. Treasuries saw the 10-year yield finished up 8 basis points at 3.64%. Senior Chinese military officers have proposed that their country boost defence spending, adjust PLA deployments, and possibly sell some U.S. bonds to punish Washington for its latest round of arms sales to Taiwan. The Treasury sold $40 billion in 3-year notes on Tuesday at 1.377% vs. Exp. 1.36%. Bid To Cover 2.83 vs. Avg. 3.01 (Prev. 2.98). Indirects 51.2% vs. Avg. 54.12% (Prev. 38.09%). The Treasury will sell $25 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $16 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

Commodities Review

Crude Oil settled +$1.86 at $73.75/brl. EIA says US weekly oil inventory reports will be delayed from Wednesday to Friday. Expectations: U.S. crude inventories +1.5mb to 330.5mb in the week ended 2/5. Distillates -1.9mb; Gasoline +0.5mb. Tuesday evening, API reported: Crude inventories shot up 7.2 million barrels to 337.4 million barrels, distillate stocks fell 1.5 million barrels and gasoline stocks rose 1.6 million barrels.

GOLD settled +$11.00 to $1,077.20/oz.

Reuters/Jefferies CRB Futures Price Index +3.60 to 265.12. To view chart: (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CR). The First Lady has taken on a cause to cut obesity in children at the same time some analysts are warning of a coming starvation, so that sounds similar to a magazine cover indicator for food stuffs. Sunspots just hit 71 and effective sports have risen but so much. 71 is getting into real numbers. USDA monthly crop report was bullish for corn and beans but a bit bearish on wheat. Farm Futures estimates were for a worse report for wheat but the average guess was for little change. Argentina is have a better crop in everything than expected but isn't a major grower of wheat. The EU is the biggest and they slipped a bit from January estimates. China is like the US and can grow anything. Their estimates are unchanged from January for corn and wheat. The near record short position remains in Chicago wheat. Traders are selling euros to buy dollars to buy the grains, so that's a new carry trade. Cold arctic air crashing into warm El Nino air is causing some difficult weather as the Browning letter suggested last fall. Summary video at farmfutures.com/story.aspx/the/buzz/demand/improves/23/35352

ECODATA

Japan Machinery Orders - December, Actual: +20.1%, Estimate: +8.0%, Prior: -11.3%.
Japan Corporate Goods Prices - January, Actual: +0.3%, Estimate: +0.1%, Prior: +0.0%, Revised from: +0.1%; Japan Import Prices Turn Up.
Japan Composite Indexes - December, Actual: +1.3%, Prior: +1.7%.
UK Ind'l Prod - December, Actual: +0.5%, Estimate: +0.2%, Prior: +0.4%.
Consumer confidence falls in Australia.
Home Loans fall in Australia.
China's Exports Jump 21% as Imports Gain 86% in January, Government Says.
China's Imports Surge 86% as Domestic Demand Aids Global Economic Rebound.
Indonesia's Economy Expands at Fastest Pace in a Year on Consumer Spending.

International Review

    * Tokyo Nikkei 225 (+31.09 / +0.31%)
    * Hong Kong Hang Seng (+131.94 / +0.67%)
    * Australia S&P/ASX 200 (+8.30 / +0.18%)

(6:00 AM)

    * UK FTSE 100 (+44.12 / +0.86%)
    * France CAC 40 (+45.36 / +1.26%)
    * Germany DAX (+72.12 / +1.31%)

FOREX

AUD/USD recovery from 0.8575 low reaches 0.8800 area.
USD/JPY tests 90.00, fails, and eases to 89.50.
EUR/USD recovery halts at 1.3840 and finds support at 1.3730 (Downside bias will remain while below 1.3950/60 - Commerzbank).
GBP/USD, rejected at 1.5750, eases to 1.5665 level, rallies back to 1.571.
Korean Swap Rate to Fall as Central Bank on Hold in First Half, Woori Says.
Yuan Forwards Fall on Speculaton China Will Limit Gains to Support Exports.

(6:00 AM)

    * Dollar / Yen (+0.05 to 89.74)
    * Euro / Dollar (-0.0009 to 1.3788)

Looking Ahead...

Wednesday, February 10

Earnings: ABD 0.22 ATVI 0.43 AMKR 0.09 ATR 0.47 MT 0.23 ARRS 0.27 ASUR N/A BHP N/A BIOC 0.06 BMR 0.31 **BKEP.PK** -0.07 BSX 0.13 BHS N/A CAE N/A CCE 0.21 CSC 1.23 SCOR 0.04 CPA 1.09 CLB 1.2 OFC 0.11 DF 0.38 PROJ 0.13 XRAY 0.48 DISCA 0.36 DFT N/A EGP 0.75 ELON -0.17 EDMC 0.39 ELN -0.08 ELOY 0.03 EQIX 0.34 RE 3.38 FORR 0.28 GLUU 0.01 GSIC 0.51 HIW 0.59 HNI 0.24 NSIT 0.2 ICE 1.14 KONA -0.16 ID -0.01 LVLT -0.1 LIOX -0.01 LFT 0.44 LOOP 0.06 LPX -0.19 MGIC N/A MMC 0.37 MAS N/A NRCI 0.29 NETC 0.17 OSUR -0.09 PRE 2.81 PVA -0.09 PVG 0.28 PAA 0.7 PL 1.02 PRU 1.11 SNY N/A SNI 0.51 SWIR 0.18 SIAL 0.72 SON 0.5 S -0.19 SPRT -0.1 TLEO 0.17 ALL 1.01 NYT 0.38 TMK 1.44 TRH 1.83 TDG 0.71 VALE 0.33 WXS 0.54 WYN 0.37
Economic Indicator: 7:00AM Weekly Mortgage Applications.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Trade Balance for December.
Economic Indicator: 2:00PM Treasury Budget for January.
Economic Indicator: Ind'l prod for UK, France, and Italy; Japan Composite Indexes.
Commodities: OPEC Monthly report.

Thursday, February 11

Earnings: ASF 0.15 A 0.32 AKNS -0.09 ALU 0.08 ACL 1.51 AB 0.53 AWH 2.21 ACAP 0.83 AN 0.27 BEC 1.27 BWA 0.22 BWLD 0.51 CEPH 1.58 CHG 0.9 CMG 0.79 CBB 0.11 CGNX 0.02 CSTR 0.32 MOC 0.04 CML 0.09 DVA 1.06 DCT 0.11 DFG 0.88 DYP 0.37 EIHI 0.23 ECA 0.42 EPIC 0.14 EXPE 0.28 EZCH 0.09 FFG 0.62 FLIR 0.38 LNUX -0.02 BGC 0.24 GPI 0.44 HGR 0.35 HE 0.2 HEP 0.73 HOS 0.33 IPCC 1 IRC 0.24 IPAS -0.01 JASO 0.11 JRN 0.12 LH 1.15 LUFK 0.16 MAC 0.91 CLI 0.76 MFC 0.57 MAR 0.25 MXWL -0.02 MFE 0.64 MRGE 0.03 TUNE -0.03 MOH -0.16 NRP 0.26 NVE 0.08 PNRA 0.96 PTI 0.38 PTEN -0.08 PNSN 0.14 PEP 0.91 PM 0.78 PGN 0.5 PLD 0.21 PRO 0.07 RNWK -0.06 O 0.46 RSG 0.33 ROVI 0.45 SCG 0.63 SNN 0.92 SNWL 0.1 SONO 0.22 STO 0.53 STRA 2.3 SLF 0.59 SMMX 0.08 ELOS -0.11 SVR 0.36 TKLC 0.23 TSP 0.65 TDC 0.37 CAKE 0.24 THS 0.66 USTR 0.93 VFC 1.46 VIA 0.87 WWE 0.18
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Initial Unemployment Claims; 4:30PM Money Supply.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Retail Sales for January.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM Business Inventories for December.
Economic Indicator: Aussie Unemployment; ECB Mthly report.

Friday, February 12

Earnings: ALE 0.53 DUK 0.25 E 1.06 HCP 0.5 IR 0.54 UPL 0.47
Economic Indicator: 10:30AM Weekly Leading Index; ; 11:00AM Crude Inventories.
Economic Indicator: 9:55AM Univ of Mich Sent-Prel for February.
Economic Indicator: Eurozone GDP; EuroZone Ind'l Prod; UK Composite Indexes.

Monday, February 15

Earnings: CHE 0.94 CW 0.74
Note: US Holiday: Presidents' Day.

Tuesday, February 16

Earnings: AAN 0.43 ANF 0.87 ACC 0.1 AMMD 0.34 ACGL 2.51 BCS N/A CPLA 0.86 FTI 0.74 FOSL 0.91 HTS N/A HWAY 0.22 INWK 0.06 IOSP -0.26 JAH 0.77 XPRT -0.09 MIG 0.2 MRK 0.78 MRH 0.74 NBR 0.16 TNDM 0.32 OTIX -0.13 PLAB -0.04 Q 0.08 RPT 0.3 TEVA 0.95 PMI -1.67 TCX 0.01 VMI 1.09 VAL 0.27 WM 0.48 WFMI 0.26 WINN -0.15 ZIXI 0
Economic Indicator: 7:45AM Weekly retail sales.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM NY Mtfg Survey for February.
Economic Indicator: 9:00AM TICS Capital Flows for December.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM E-Commerce Retail Sales for Q4.
Economic Indicator: 1:00PM NAHB Sentiment for February.
Economic Indicator: ZEW survey; UK CPI.

All Times Eastern

Economics

(2/9)

ICSC-GS Weekly Store Sales Increase for Super Bowl (February Seen Similar to February); Redbook Begins February Ahead of Expectations.
NFIB Small-Business Optimism Picks Up in January But Hasn't Done Much Since August.
Wholesale Inventory/Sales Ratio Improved in 2009 After Reaching Previous Recession Highs.
Job Openings Move Off the Most Recent Low; Quits Remaining in Check Show Low Confidence.
Monster European Online Employment Index Drops to a New Low in January.

Marc Faber: If The U.S. Was A Corporation, Its Credit Rating Would Be Junk .
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-faber-if-us-was-corporation-its-credit-rating-would-be-junk

Markets (oil price and interest rate growth rates relative to the stock market):

Long term: Neutral 2/8.
Intermediate: Neutral 2/4.
Short-term: Neutral 2/4.

Interest rates seem to be holding up better than stocks keeping away a more favorable setup. Possibly this is the favorable seasonality for interest rates or possibly it's due to the Fed having held down interest rates previously. Oil prices like silver are nearing an extreme. Neutral favors whatever the current market direction is as both interest rates and oil showing relative weakness to stocks becomes a positive setup for an advance. January 2010 saw the various growth rates of oil and interest rates showing strength relative to stocks which is a short-term negative and long-term adjustment to slower market appreciation at the very least and something we'll probably have to contend with on and off until the next economic growth slowdown or recession.

Sectors (basic materials and energy growth rates relative to the other sectors):

Long term: Neutral 9/10.
Intermediate: Neutral 11/11.
Short-term: Neutral 1/12.

Commodity sectors' short-term growth rates show intermediate growth rates are among the weakest with only telecom similar. The best time to look for a short-term reversal is when both commodity sectors become the weakest. A positive is that we haven't had a negative signal yet for long-term growth rates due to energy even though basic materials became the strongest sector in September. That could be a negative on the downside as it will take a while to get both the commodity sectors to the weakest.

ECODATA

Germany Dec Trade surplus decreases to €16.7B from €17B.
Germany CPI - January, Actual: -0.3%, Prior: +0.6% (prel was -0.1% and seasonal adjustment changes were 0.3%, so the final would have been flat if they hadn't changed the data. January was odd as they also had some sort of freaky discount that made the prel data negative in the first place.)
UK Dec Total Trade deficit rises to £3.3B from £2.9B, unexpectedly jumps to highest level since Jan 09.
PM Rudd defends Australia from debt default barb.
Greece eyes increasing average pension age to 63.

International Review

    * Tokyo Nikkei 225 (-18.92 / -0.19%)
    * Hong Kong Hang Seng (+239.39 / +1.22%)
    * Australia S&P/ASX 200 (-16.30 / -0.36%)

(6:00 AM)

    * UK FTSE 100 (+23.84 / +0.47%)
    * France CAC 40 (+3.68 / +0.10%)
    * Germany DAX (+14.96 / +0.27%)

FOREX

USD/JPY testing range top at 89.55; look for further losses to 88.25/00 - Commerzbank.
EUR/USD breaks past 1.3720, hits 1.3745 resistance (1.3480 the key level).
GBP/USD rangebound around 1.5600.
AUD/USD advances steadily to 0.8740 from 0.8620.

(6:00 AM)

    * Dollar / Yen (+0.45 to 89.72)
    * Euro / Dollar (+0.0079 to 1.3728)

Looking Ahead...

Tuesday, February 9

Earnings: AKR 0.26 ACPW -0.03 ACM 0.39 AGCO 0.3 AGU 0.25 AHCI 0.07 ANR 0.45 AFG 0.98 ASEI 0.96 AHL 1.12 ATRO 0.09 ATAC 0.5 BIDU 1.68 BIIB 1.05 BJS 0.04 BWY 0.11 CAM 0.53 CPST -0.05 CFN 0.38 CSCD -0.08 CE 0.47 CNC 0.52 CERN 0.71 CHD 0.8 CTSH 0.46 CGEN N/A EXBD 0.24 CXW 0.34 CVH 0.56 CYNO -0.11 DIOD 0.29 DEI 0.3 DSCM -0.02 EDGR -0.03 ENER -0.43 EOG 0.97 IT 0.26 GET 0.09 GIL 0.22 IACI 0.18 IESC 0.09 IFF 0.62 ITUB 0.33 KFRC 0.08 VLCCF 0.46 KUB N/A KVHI 0.06 LCAV -0.48 LTRE 0.13 LGF -0.24 MLM 0.33 MXGL 0.99 MEDW 0.08 TAP 1.1 MGAM -0.08 NFP 0.52 UEPS 0.5 NTGR 0.22 NYX 0.48 PMFG 0.02 PCH 0.04 PHM -0.28 QUIK N/A RNR 2.5 DFZ 0.65 RMG N/A RTIX 0.04 RBCN -0.05 SGEN -0.23 TCO 0.69 TIN 0.04 KO 0.67 GTS 0.75 UBS N/A UDR 0.28 ULTI 0.1 USNA 0.59 VLNC -0.04 VSH 0.12 VMC 0 DIS 0.39 WMG -0.13 XL 0.7 ZBRA 0.26
Economic Indicator: 7:45AM Weekly retail sales.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM Wholesale Inventories for December.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM JOLTS Survey for December.
Economic Indicator: Germany CPI.

Wednesday, February 10

Earnings: ABD 0.22 ATVI 0.43 AMKR 0.09 ATR 0.47 MT 0.23 ARRS 0.27 ASUR N/A BHP N/A BIOC 0.06 BMR 0.31 **BKEP.PK** -0.07 BSX 0.13 BHS N/A CAE N/A CCE 0.21 CSC 1.23 SCOR 0.04 CPA 1.09 CLB 1.2 OFC 0.11 DF 0.38 PROJ 0.13 XRAY 0.48 DISCA 0.36 DFT N/A EGP 0.75 ELON -0.17 EDMC 0.39 ELN -0.08 ELOY 0.03 EQIX 0.34 RE 3.38 FORR 0.28 GLUU 0.01 GSIC 0.51 HIW 0.59 HNI 0.24 NSIT 0.2 ICE 1.14 KONA -0.16 ID -0.01 LVLT -0.1 LIOX -0.01 LFT 0.44 LOOP 0.06 LPX -0.19 MGIC N/A MMC 0.37 MAS N/A NRCI 0.29 NETC 0.17 OSUR -0.09 PRE 2.81 PVA -0.09 PVG 0.28 PAA 0.7 PL 1.02 PRU 1.11 SNY N/A SNI 0.51 SWIR 0.18 SIAL 0.72 SON 0.5 S -0.19 SPRT -0.1 TLEO 0.17 ALL 1.01 NYT 0.38 TMK 1.44 TRH 1.83 TDG 0.71 VALE 0.33 WXS 0.54 WYN 0.37
Economic Indicator: 7:00AM Weekly Mortgage Applications; 10:30AM Crude Inventories.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Trade Balance for December.
Economic Indicator: 2:00PM Treasury Budget for January.
Economic Indicator: Ind'l prod for UK, France, and Italy; Japan Composite Indexes.
Commodities: OPEC Monthly report.

Thursday, February 11

Earnings: ASF 0.15 A 0.32 AKNS -0.09 ALU 0.08 ACL 1.51 AB 0.53 AWH 2.21 ACAP 0.83 AN 0.27 BEC 1.27 BWA 0.22 BWLD 0.51 CEPH 1.58 CHG 0.9 CMG 0.79 CBB 0.11 CGNX 0.02 CSTR 0.32 MOC 0.04 CML 0.09 DVA 1.06 DCT 0.11 DFG 0.88 DYP 0.37 EIHI 0.23 ECA 0.42 EPIC 0.14 EXPE 0.28 EZCH 0.09 FFG 0.62 FLIR 0.38 LNUX -0.02 BGC 0.24 GPI 0.44 HGR 0.35 HE 0.2 HEP 0.73 HOS 0.33 IPCC 1 IRC 0.24 IPAS -0.01 JASO 0.11 JRN 0.12 LH 1.15 LUFK 0.16 MAC 0.91 CLI 0.76 MFC 0.57 MAR 0.25 MXWL -0.02 MFE 0.64 MRGE 0.03 TUNE -0.03 MOH -0.16 NRP 0.26 NVE 0.08 PNRA 0.96 PTI 0.38 PTEN -0.08 PNSN 0.14 PEP 0.91 PM 0.78 PGN 0.5 PLD 0.21 PRO 0.07 RNWK -0.06 O 0.46 RSG 0.33 ROVI 0.45 SCG 0.63 SNN 0.92 SNWL 0.1 SONO 0.22 STO 0.53 STRA 2.3 SLF 0.59 SMMX 0.08 ELOS -0.11 SVR 0.36 TKLC 0.23 TSP 0.65 TDC 0.37 CAKE 0.24 THS 0.66 USTR 0.93 VFC 1.46 VIA 0.87 WWE 0.18
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Initial Unemployment Claims; 4:30PM Money Supply.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Retail Sales for January.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM Business Inventories for December.
Economic Indicator: Aussie Unemployment; ECB Mthly report.

Friday, February 12

Earnings: ALE 0.53 DUK 0.25 E 1.06 HCP 0.5 IR 0.54 UPL 0.47
Economic Indicator: 10:30AM Weekly Leading Index.
Economic Indicator: 9:45AM NFIB Small-Business Optimism for January.
Economic Indicator: 9:55AM Univ of Mich Sent-Prel for February.
Economic Indicator: Eurozone GDP; EuroZone Ind'l Prod; UK Composite Indexes.

Monday, February 15

Earnings: CHE 0.94 CW 0.74
Note: US Holiday: Presidents' Day.

All Times Eastern

Economics

(2/8)

Conference Board's Employment Leading Index Improves; Growth Rate Low was March.
Fed's Bullard sees support within Fed on beginning to sell some assets in H2 2010.
Japan Money Supply slows as many leading indicators have since Sept/Oct.

Some More Perspectives On This Weekend's Secretive Banker Meeting In Sydney.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/some-more-perspectives-weekends-secretive-banker-meeting-syndey

The Aussie/Euro Cross is the Carry Trade in its Purest Form.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/aussieeuro-cross-carry-trade-its-purest-form

Markets (oil price and interest rate growth rates relative to the stock market):

Long term: Neutral 2/8.
Intermediate: Neutral 2/4.
Short-term: Neutral 2/4.

Interest rates seem to be holding up better than stocks keeping away a more favorable setup. Possibly this is the favorable seasonality for interest rates or possibly it's due to the Fed having held down interest rates previously. Oil prices like silver are nearing an extreme. Neutral favors whatever the current market direction is as both interest rates and oil showing relative weakness to stocks becomes a positive setup for an advance. January 2010 saw the various growth rates of oil and interest rates showing strength relative to stocks which is a short-term negative and long-term adjustment to slower market appreciation at the very least and something we'll probably have to contend with on and off until the next economic growth slowdown or recession.

Sectors (basic materials and energy growth rates relative to the other sectors):

Long term: Neutral 9/10.
Intermediate: Neutral 11/11.
Short-term: Neutral 1/12.

Commodity sectors' short-term growth rates show intermediate growth rates are among the weakest with only telecom similar. The best time to look for a short-term reversal is when both commodity sectors become the weakest. A positive is that we haven't had a negative signal yet for long-term growth rates due to energy even though basic materials became the strongest sector in September. That could be a negative on the downside as it will take a while to get both the commodity sectors to the weakest.